9. FROM PARLIAMENT TO ASSEMBLY: CHANGING VOTER BEHAVIOUR IN WALES BETWEEN THE 1997 GENERAL ELECTION AND THE 1999 NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION Ron Johnston, Dafydd Trystan, Charles Pattie and Richard Wyn Jones The 1999 elections to the National Assembly for Wales saw a fundamental shift in voting patterns. Since the Second World War, Labour in Wales had enjoyed a hegemonic position among the Welsh electorate, routinely commanding in excess of 50 per cent of the popular vote, and capturing two- thirds and more of parliamentary seats. While Labour and the Conservatives battled for supremacy at a UK level, Labour has reigned supreme in Wales. In the election in May 1999, however, Labour suffered a severe setback. This setback saw Labour lose a third of the support (in percentage terms) that it had garnered in the 1997 UK general election, while Plaid Cymru managed to triple its previous share. This transformation in political fortunes, symbolized above all perhaps by dramatic defeat for Labour in the Rhondda, a constituency held by Labour representatives since 1885, has since been the subject of a number of analyses (see, for example, Wyn Jones and Trystan, 1999a; 2000; Balsom, 2000). This paper will continue the analysis of the 1999 results by posing two ques- tions. Firstly, to what extent were the patterns of movement between the parties and patterns of abstention uniform across the forty Welsh constituen- cies? Secondly, did campaigning by the parties have any impact on their success or otherwise in maintaining the loyalty of their own supporters and/or attracting new support from the other parties? To answer these questions, we will look at the flows of support in each constituency between the two elec- tions (using voting for the constituency contests at the latter), and explore their relationship to the pattern of campaigning by each party in each constituency.